Forecasts Don’t Fail — Assumptions Do
- Moshe Avrahami
- Jan 6
- 2 min read
Sales forecasts rarely fail because teams lack effort. They fail because they are built on assumptions that go unchallenged.
At ABD, we’ve seen forecasts that were wildly optimistic — and others that were overly conservative. In both cases, the issue wasn’t math. It was bias.
Why Forecasts So Often Miss the Mark
In our experience, forecasts break down for three main reasons:
1. Bias replaces evidence
Forecasts are frequently driven by gut feeling rather than verified customer data. Confidence, optimism, and hope quietly creep in — especially when visibility is limited.
2. Pressure distorts reality
Some teams sandbag to avoid disappointment. Others inflate numbers to satisfy short-term expectations. Both approaches move the forecast further away from truth.
3. Emotion fills the gaps
When teams don’t truly know what’s happening in a deal, emotion fills the void. Confidence becomes a substitute for commitment.
The Assumptions That Rarely Get Challenged
Across industries and stages, we see the same assumptions surface again and again:
Our product is the right solution
The customer is ready to buy
We have commitment
We’re speaking to the decision maker
Most of these assumptions feel reasonable — until they’re tested. And very often, they aren’t. One of the most damaging blind spots is assuming a solo decision maker, when in reality decisions are made by groups, committees, and layered stakeholders with different incentives.
Why Pipeline Quality Determines Forecast Credibility
A forecast is only as reliable as the pipeline beneath it.
If deals linger without clear next steps…If stages are driven by optimism instead of customer action…If “commit” means “I feel good about it” rather than “the customer has committed”…
Then the forecast becomes a story, not a tool.
How ABD Helps Teams Forecast Differently
ABD doesn’t invent forecasting models. We help teams remove distortion.
We do this by:
Implementing structured qualification methodologies such as MEDDICC
Defining pipeline stages based on observable customer behavior
Coaching teams on disciplined pipeline reviews
Separating hope from evidence
Enforcing deal commit discipline grounded in facts, not sentiment
Forecasting under this approach becomes a reflection of reality — not ambition, fear, or pressure.
The Reframe That Changes Everything
Forecasts don’t predict outcomes.They describe the strength of relationships.
Commitment is the mark of successful relationship-building in sales — as in life.
When commitment is real, it shows up in actions:
Access
Time
Priority
Decisions
Movement
When it’s missing, no forecast will fix it.
Final Thought
Strong forecasts aren’t optimistic or conservative. They’re honest.
And honesty starts with challenging assumptions — early, often, and without emotion.
What’s Next
If you’d like help building forecasts your leadership team can trust, we’re always open to a conversation.
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